This is Northumberland Calling 7.3.25

The Macron needs to remember Napoleon edition

Hello America (Particularly Central Ohio) this is Northumberland Calling

Yesterday Putin warned Macron to remember what happened to Napoleon. As I highly doubt that Macron is intending on invading Russia in winter, I think Macron will sleep easy at night. Rather Putin’s remarks demonstrate how weak he is and why no concessions which allow him to claim victory should be granted. Con Coughlin who tends to get decent intelligence has done a good op-ed on the weakness of Putin and Putin’s hope that Trump grants him what he requires. I only hope that Trump is cannier than that but… https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/06/dont-be-fooled-putin-is-weak-and-desperate-for-peace/ or https://archive.ph/Vqp2K

If you wish to see more detailed analysis including Putin and other Kremlin officials’ explicit rejection of any concessions in peace proposals, do have a look at the Institute for the Study of War’s latest update. The front line is very frozen btw. Russia is only advancing by throwing soldiers into the meatgrinder. The best estimate as Coughlin pointed out is 850k Russian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, this is more than the combined losses of British and American troops in WW2. Ukraine only gives vague figures but are up there. I think the Ukrainian losses are less because in part the UK and others do run military hospitals in the western part of Ukraine. The Russians tend to abandon their wounded. I sincerely hope that the ceasefire comes soon and a proper peace can be established. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2025

The repercussions from Vance’s untimely interventions do continue. Gerald Baker has done a good op ed about why Vance is behaving in this way. His words might play to a certain domestic audience but they have gone down like a lead balloon elsewhere. On the plus side, Vance has probably done more in his 45 days in office than Harris did her four years. I am just not entirely sure it is what America wanted (For years they have worked behind the scenes to keep NATO and Europe tied into American tech – but that went out the window this week) https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/opportunist-or-sycophant-jd-vance-is-both-65sh9g2jq or https://archive.ph/8M2bL

I notice Hegseth made a huge show of welcoming John Healey to the Pentagon yesterday. It was very unusual for Starmer to revive the tradition of reading out the names of the fallen from Afghanistan before PMQ as he did earlier this week after Vance made his ‘some random countries’ remark. I suspect that Hegseth’s welcome was a subtle way of showing that Britain is still very much valued despite Vance’s ill-chosen words. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/06/calling-trump-pro-russia-garbage-hegesth-ukraine/ or https://archive.ph/VjMVG

Healey also announced a contract with a US/UK firm to make attack drones for Ukraine prior to the meeting. Anduril UK which was founded in California but is creating a large manufacturing plant in the UK (I understand in the Northwest) is the beneficiary. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-attack-drones-for-ukraine-in-new-deal-struck-by-uk-government-and-anduril-uk

Another upshot is that the UK Treasury is going to scrap the ESG pension rules put in place by my old MP Guy Opperman. The unintended consequence has been large pension funds not investing in defence companies on ethical grounds. Reeves is now keen for this to change. Because the Telegraph are doing the reporting, they don’t mention the part Opperman a Conservative MP played in creating these rules which are now acting against national interest. . https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/06/top-pension-funds-refuse-to-back-defence-industry/ or https://archive.ph/Ul22B

Lord Hermer is supposedly one of the people blocking the release of the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Lammy is keen to press ahead. The government keeps stressing that it can only happen in conjunction with other countries (France also is blocking as they worried about ME countries etc. The French being the French) https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/lord-hermer-blocking-russian-asset-seizures-ukraine-fkxg6js6g or https://archive.ph/wUTGh

The two-tier justice which Shabana Mahmood , the Justice Secretary has reacted so angrily (she has demanded the Sentencing Council Quango to look again), threatening to alter the law if the Sentencing Council doesn’t alter (they ignored the former Conservative Justice Secretary on this matter last April apparently) stems in part from David Lammy’s 2017 report which looked at the ways in which institutional racism could be addressed within British society. The 2021 Sewell report found no significant institutional racism but this finding did not alter the Sentencing Council’s determination. The Sentencing Council also ignored advice that the proposals were counter to equality in sentencing. Robert Jenrick, the shadow Conservative Justice has launched a judicial review of the guidelines. https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/softer-sentencing-minority-uk-prisoners-david-lammy-6h2s6djgn or https://archive.ph/BmrQF

I note California governor Gavin Newsom has come out in favour of biological sex categories in sports. Is a run for the White House in 2028 in the offing? He certainly seems to be speaking from a different hymn sheet than previously. Maybe his breaking cover on this issue will make it easier for other Democrats to speak up and it will cease to be such a partisan issue. It shouldn’t be. It should be one of common sense. The Spiral of Silence has been near total in the Democrat party. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/03/06/californias-newsom-long-time-gay-rights-ally-opposes-trans-athletes-in-womens-sports/

The Supreme Court UK is poised to rule on what is a woman in the For Women Scotland v The Scottish government case. It was heard last November and the ruling should come any day. Fingers crossed. https://www.thetimes.com/article/6a59421a-6945-4121-9c02-44c5059e0602?shareToken=ffc46e4dac9bc647d3a7d20659d147bd

It is Crufts this week. You can watch the various judging and things like obedience and flyball. There are also videos of the hero dogs. Today is utility and toy. Saturday is the Gun Dog day. https://www.youtube.com/@crufts

Here – I have my second revisions and need to deepen the emotion etc all by the 17^th.

Paddy unconvinced by his new raincoat

Paddy is doing well. He and Hercules share an interest in bird watching. They together for hours in the sun room watching the starlings and blackbirds. Both are somewhat annoyed that pesky birds never seem to fill in the right paperwork. Hercules chirrups at them. Paddy chases them when he is out.

I look forward to geopolitical events calming down.

Hopefully everyone else’s week was a good one. See you in the comments.

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